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Staying Alive: The Impact of Media Momentum on Candidacy Attrition in the 1980—2004 Primaries

School of Communication, the Ohio State University, 3001 Derby Hall, 154 N. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH, 43210, shen.140{at}osu.edu

This study proposes a "media momentum model," arguing that the amount of news coverage candidates receive might influence their candidacy potency and duration. The two mechanisms that drive this process are rational choice on the candidates' side and cue taking on the voters' side. Based on data from the primary elections in the past two decades, this study shows that media coverage frequency of presidential candidates during and before their "exhibition season" has significant impact on the length of time they stay in the race before withdrawing from the campaign. Given the notion that choice is at the core of democracy, continued scholarly attention should be paid to the unique explanatory power of media coverage in elections.

Key Words: primary election • candidacy winnowing • candidacy attrition • media effects • momentum model

The International Journal of Press/Politics, Vol. 13, No. 4, 429-450 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/1940161208323550


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